No one is invading Somaliland or Jubaland, Farmaajo is smarter than that

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A diplomatic row between Kenya and Somalia has escalated with Mogadishu recalling its ambassador and expelling the Kenyan ambassador from the country. Some reports have termed the recent rift between the two East African neighbors as plans by some horn of Africa countries to form a regional front to invade Somaliland and Jubaland administrations.

Some reports have alluded that Tigray attack by ENDF was just phase one of the planned joint action by the new front being led by Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia. Apparently, the three leaders have a secret regional integration deal which they are unfolding slowly.

These allegations are delusional, there is no way Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo can sanction an armed conflict within his country that has not known peace over two decades.

Somalia has been ranked as one of the most failed states in the world. Since the fall of Siad Barre in 1991, the former African power plunged into a civil war that has seen the worst human rights abuses, hunger and starvation, destruction of all major infrastructure and pillars of governance and stability.

The most current is the Al Shabaab’s menace. This militia has been a thorn in the flesh for previous Somalia’s administrations. President Farmajo himself came to the helm of power after strongly promising to eliminate Al Qaida linked Al Shabaab militia once and for all. A promise that has eluded his administration almost throughout his first term in office.

African Union (AU) has had more gains towards this campaign. Somalia is part of AU which sponsors and contributes troops to Somalia to fight Al Shabaab under the umbrella of AMISOM. Farmajo knows very well Kenyan troops are also among AMISOM and was sanctioned to deploy and operate in the Southern part of Somalia which hosts Jubaland and larger part of Gedo Region. He can’t jeopardize AU or AMISOM role for that matter.

In the wake of the incoming general elections, president Farmajo cannot engage in an armed conflict and sabotage his legacy and chance of being re-elected for a second term

Hundreds of Somali people died for the creation of Somaliland and Jubaland and they will protect it with all it takes. Forcefully confronting the two regions will definitely capture the attention of international community and ICC. President Farmajo, who is western educated and previously with a dual Somalia and US citizenship is not ignorant.

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